Odds
-144
Units
2.00u
Potential Profit
+1.39u
Lonzo catches a lot of flak because of the hype he entered the league with, but to be fair, he still brings value as a defender and facilitator. The issue here isn’t his overall impact — it’s his jumper.
He’s ice cold right now. Lonzo has stayed under this number in five straight games while playing over 23 minutes per night, hitting just 4 of his last 23 attempts from deep. That’s a brutal 17.4%, and it didn’t come against elite defenses either. One of those games even went to overtime with extended run — still no cover.
Zooming out, the trend holds. Since joining Cleveland, Lonzo is shooting 26% from three on the season, easily the lowest mark of his career. That inefficiency is compounded by injuries to shooters like Strus and Merrill, which removes spacing and puts more defensive attention on Ball.
Chicago isn’t an elite defensive unit overall, but they do a solid job limiting three-point production from point guards, ranking among the better teams in that category. They also have capable perimeter defenders off the bench — Tre Jones and Ayo Dosunmu (if active) — who can make life uncomfortable without needing to lock him down.
This isn’t a narrative spot either. Lonzo already faced Chicago once this year and went 0-for-3 from deep, so there’s no “former team boost” to worry about.
Cold shooter, tough matchup, low margin for error — I’m fading the threes again.
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