I’m backing Winnipeg here because this matchup tilts in their favor in two areas that often decide tight NHL games: goaltending reliability and special teams.

Both offenses are producing at a similar clip, right around 3 goals per game, but Ottawa has been much leakier defensively. They’ve already given up over 100 goals through 31 games and their team save percentage has lagged behind, while Winnipeg has stayed essentially even in goals for and against with a noticeably stronger goaltending profile.

Special teams are where the separation really shows. Ottawa’s power play has been effective, but their penalty kill has been a glaring weakness all season. Against a capable Winnipeg power play, that’s a dangerous combination — it only takes one or two conversions to swing a close game.

In goal, assuming we get Hellebuyck versus Ullmark, I give the edge to the Jets. Hellebuyck has been the more consistent option this year and looked sharp in his return, while Ullmark has struggled to find rhythm. Ottawa has also dropped four of its last five games, whereas Winnipeg’s path to a win feels pretty clear: stay disciplined, limit Ottawa’s power-play chances, and lean on the stronger goaltending to steal the difference-making goal.