I’m honestly surprised Leipzig is sitting at plus money in this spot. Not saying it’s a slam dunk, but this feels like a number you have to at least consider.

Union Berlin just hasn’t been getting it done at home — no league wins at their place since October — and their attack hasn’t shown much consistency. Leipzig hasn’t been perfect away from home, but they’ve at least shown signs of life. They’ve dropped six goals in a match twice since Halloween and generally have far more scoring upside.

Yes, Leipzig can be streaky, but in a matchup like this they simply have more ways to win. Against a Berlin side that’s been struggling to generate offense, I like taking the shot at plus money.