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Hey guys, I've been thinking about Game 7 between the Mariners and Blue Jays, and I'm leaning towards a couple of home run picks. The ALCS has seen some big blasts already, with an average of 3.7 homers per game.
One guy who's been crushing it on the road is Julio Rodriguez. He's hit .284 with 24 homers away from T-Mobile Park, compared to just .236 with 11 homers in Seattle. Rogers Centre is a hitter-friendly park, which should play right into Rodriguez's hands. Plus, he has a history of going deep against Shane Bieber, who's struggled with right-handed bats this year.
Bieber's allowed an ISO nearing .300 when facing righties, and he's conceded at least one homer in five of his last six starts. That's a tough matchup for the Blue Jays' pitching staff, especially if Rodriguez can get into a rhythm early on.
On the other side, Daulton Varsho has been hitting the ball hard this series. He's hit 340+ feet four times already, including a 350-footer with a 109 MPH exit velocity last time he faced George Kirby. With Kirby struggling to keep left-handed bats in check, I think Varsho is due for another big blast.
Varsho has posted a .359 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers this year, and he's hit the ball out of the park more than 39% of the time against righties. If he gets a pitch he likes, he'll be swinging for the fences.
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