Hey guys, I wanted to share my thoughts on Game 7 of the ALCS between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners. It's a huge matchup with one team looking to make history in their first World Series appearance.

I've got three props that I think are worth backing: Shane Bieber over 4.5 strikeouts, George Kirby over 3.5 strikeouts, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 total bases. Let me break each of them down.

First up is Bieber. As a veteran pitcher, he's been in high-pressure situations before and has consistently delivered. He struck out eight Mariners earlier in the series, which was his second-highest total of the postseason. The underlying data suggests that Bieber's breaking pitches, especially his slider, are key to his success against Seattle.

The Mariners have struggled against sliders all season, with a 37% whiff rate against them. In a high-stakes game like this, I expect that trend to continue. I'm confident in Bieber to rack up the strikeouts and back him down to -156.

Next is Kirby. The main factor driving his prop is the expected leash he'll have. Seattle manager Dan Wilson has said that Kirby is the guy they want in tough situations, which suggests a high level of trust. However, the Mariners' approach can be unpredictable, so I'm inclined to believe that Kirby's leash will be long enough to clear this number.

Kirby's elite swing-and-miss ability gives him a legitimate path to success even against the Blue Jays' profile. With the pressure mounting, I expect him to repeat his earlier performance in this series and back him up at +120.

Lastly, Guerrero Jr. is a no-brainer. His postseason form has been incredible, with a .462/.532/1.000 slash line. He's delivered in every way you'd want the face of your franchise to deliver. I like this matchup against Kirby, too, as Guerrero's higher whiff rate and ability to hit hard contact make him a threat.

Given his postseason form, I'll happily back Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 total bases at -110.