This is a bet from 2 view points. The first thought is that the Patriots are now above their market value. Earlier in the year I believe the upside from Maye, Diggs, Gonzalez and the coaching was not priced in. The Patriots the last two weeks have been #1 in most bet side in consensus reporting, and are at that level again early this week. This is peak betting interest combined with peak rating for New England this season, but no movement in the market. It’s a bit telling. Maye is awesome but has not played against a defense currently in the top 12 of yards per play allowed. He’s faced a watered down version of Pittsburgh (without Highsmith and Porter) which has been the best defense he’s seen all season. The second thought is that Cleveland is near league best at home and near league worst away with their defense. I’m predicting they will be closer to their best showing from their defense. This season it is a difference of 19 points per game and it feels extremely random. I don’t think it can be priced and predicted accurately. I think the spread is slightly inflated on NE due to offensive performance and slightly deflated on CLE due to the away splits. Both teams will be playing closer to their true showing in this game and getting 7 points with by far the best defense on the Pats schedule so far feels right.